Inside Information or Luck? How a Crypto Trader Made $436,000 on Maduro

An anonymous user on the crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket made more than $436,000 after placing a bet that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be out of power by the end of January, shortly before U.S. authorities publicly announced his capture.

According to platform data, the bettor placed roughly $32,500 across multiple positions related to Venezuela and joined Polymarket only weeks earlier.

In the hours leading up to the announcement by President Donald Trump, odds on Maduro’s removal shifted sharply. On the afternoon of January 2, traders estimated the likelihood of Maduro’s exit at just 6.5 percent.

By late that night and into the early hours of January 3, those odds rose significantly, suggesting a sudden influx of informed trading activity.

The identity of the account remains unknown, listed only under a blockchain identifier.

Financial watchdogs and market observers have noted that the timing of the trades raises concerns about whether nonpublic information may have been used.

Several U.S. lawmakers have since taken notice. New legislation has been introduced that would prohibit government employees from trading on prediction markets when they possess material, nonpublic information.

While insider trading laws are well established in traditional stock markets, prediction markets currently face far fewer regulatory restrictions, placing renewed focus on oversight as their popularity grows.