How exposed is Iran’s power grid under current tensions?

A warning by US President Donald Trump that Iran’s power plants could be targeted has renewed focus on the resilience of the country’s electricity network.

Despite the threat, experts suggest Iran’s grid is unlikely to be disabled through limited military strikes.

Iran’s power system is large, decentralized, and heavily reliant on thermal generation, which accounts for more than 95% of electricity production. The country operates around 130 thermal power plants with a combined capacity of roughly 78,000 megawatts, including several major facilities exceeding 2,000 megawatts.

However, even the largest plants contribute only a small share to the overall system. For example, the Damavand power plant, Iran’s biggest, represents about 3.7% of total capacity. This means that even significant damage to a single facility would have a limited impact on national supply.

Beyond generation, Iran’s extensive transmission network spans more than 1.3 million kilometers and is supported by hundreds of thousands of transformers and thousands of substations. While strikes could cause localized outages, the system’s scale and redundancy make a nationwide blackout unlikely.

Overall, the structure of Iran’s grid suggests disruptions would likely remain temporary and regional rather than widespread.