Does declaring Hormuz open mean trade is back to normal?

Recent developments in the Strait of Hormuz highlight the gap between political announcements and conditions on the ground.

Although the waterway was briefly declared open following a temporary ceasefire, Iran quickly reimposed control, citing a continued U.S. blockade of its ports as a violation of the agreement.

Shipping data shows that traffic has not meaningfully resumed. Vessel movements dropped sharply, with only limited crossings reported and several ships turning back after attempting to transit the route. Hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew remain stranded in the Gulf, waiting for safer conditions.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, handling roughly 20% of global oil shipments under normal circumstances. Its disruption has already had significant effects on global energy flows and market stability.

Experts say that even if the strait reopens again, a return to normal operations is unlikely to be immediate.

Shipping companies are expected to remain cautious, with traffic recovering gradually over months rather than days.

Elevated risks, higher insurance costs, and uncertainty around security conditions could continue to affect trade well beyond the end of active hostilities.