Big money bets on Iran ceasefire raise insider trading concerns

Large wagers placed on a potential US–Iran ceasefire are drawing scrutiny from analysts and crypto market observers.

On the prediction platform Polymarket, a cluster of newly created accounts placed nearly $70,000 on a ceasefire agreement being reached before March 31. If correct, those bets could return approximately $820,000.

Experts say the timing and structure of the bets have raised questions about whether some traders may have access to non-public information. Several of the accounts were created shortly before placing the wagers, and some appear to use wallet-splitting strategies, a tactic that can be used to obscure the identity of a single investor.

A similar pattern had previously been observed with another account that placed a successful bet ahead of US strikes on Iran on February 28. Meanwhile, the platform’s implied probability of a ceasefire rose sharply from around 6% to approximately 24% within a few days.

More than $21 million is now being wagered on the outcome.

The activity highlights the growing role of online prediction markets in tracking geopolitical events, while also raising concerns about transparency and potential misuse.